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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">vestniktgasu</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Вестник Томского государственного архитектурно-строительного университета</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Vestnik Tomskogo gosudarstvennogo arkhitekturno-stroitel'nogo universiteta. JOURNAL of Construction and Architecture</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1607-1859</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2310-0044</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Tomsk State University of Architecture and Building</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.31675/1607-1859-2025-27-1-194-202</article-id><article-id custom-type="edn" pub-id-type="custom">TMXROP</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">vestniktgasu-1985</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ПРОЕКТИРОВАНИЕ И СТРОИТЕЛЬСТВО ДОРОГ, МЕТРОПОЛИТЕНОВ, АЭРОДРОМОВ, МОСТОВ И ТРАНСПОРТНЫХ ТОННЕЛЕЙ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>ENGINEERING AND CONSTRUCTION OF ROADS, SUBWAYS, AIRDROMES, AND TUNNELS</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Многокритериальное прогнозирование эксплуатационной надежности несущих балок металлических мостов</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Multicriteria Prediction of Service Reliability of Load-Bearing Beams of Metal Bridges</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Картопольцев</surname><given-names>В. М.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kartopoltsev</surname><given-names>V. M.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Картопольцев Владимир Михайлович, докт. техн. наук, профессор,</p><p>634003, г. Томск, пл. Соляная, 2.</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Vladimir M. Kartopoltsev, DSc, Professor,</p><p>2, Solyanaya Sq., Tomsk, 634003.</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Картопольцев</surname><given-names>А. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kartopoltsev</surname><given-names>A. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Картопольцев Андрей Владимирович, канд. техн. наук, доцент, </p><p>634003, г. Томск, пер. Соляной, 24/1.</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Andrey V. Kartopoltsev, PhD, A/Professor, </p><p>24/1, Solyanoy Str., 634003, Tomsk.</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">diamos@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Томский государственный архитектурно-строительный университет</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Tomsk State University of Architecture and Building</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ООО «ДИАМОС»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>OOO “DIAMOS”</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2025</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>27</day><month>02</month><year>2025</year></pub-date><volume>27</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>194</fpage><lpage>202</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Картопольцев В.М., Картопольцев А.В., 2025</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2025</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Картопольцев В.М., Картопольцев А.В.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Kartopoltsev V.M., Kartopoltsev A.V.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://vestnik.tsuab.ru/jour/article/view/1985">https://vestnik.tsuab.ru/jour/article/view/1985</self-uri><abstract><sec><title>Актуальность</title><p>Актуальность. Многокритериальное прогнозирование эксплуатационной надежности несущих элементов пролетных строений мостов на основе комплексного применения механических и энергетических критериев, а также элементов теории катастроф определяет актуальность проблемы.</p><p>Многокритериальное прогнозирование надежности несущих элементов пролётных строений мостов представляет собой расширение использования элементов теории катастроф на основе механических и энергетических критериев.</p></sec><sec><title>Цель</title><p>Цель: рассмотреть многокритериальное прогнозирование надежности мостовых конструкций в процессе термодинамического состояния и приспособляемости материала, элементов и конструкций в целом в течение длительного эксплуатационного периода.</p></sec><sec><title>Результаты</title><p>Результаты: на основе равновесных состояний, характеризующих и сопровождающих мгновенность деформационно-катастрофического процесса, определены управляющие параметры процесса прогнозирования надёжности.</p></sec></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Multi-criteria prediction of the service reliability of load-bearing elements based on the application of mechanical and energetic criteria and theory of catastrophes, determines the relevance of the study. Multi-criteria prediction of the service reliability of load-bearing elements of bridge spans is an expansion of understanding and use of elements of catastrophe theory based on mechanical and energy criteria. </p><sec><title>Purpose</title><p>Purpose: The aim of this work is to consider multi-criteria prediction of the service reliability of bridge structures in thermodynamic state and adaptability of the material, elements and structures as a whole during a long operational period. </p></sec><sec><title>Research findings</title><p>Research findings: Control parameters of the reliability forecasting process are determined based on equilibrium states, characterized and accompanying the instantaneousness of the deformation-catastrophic process.</p></sec></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>надежность</kwd><kwd>критерии</kwd><kwd>балка</kwd><kwd>случайные величины</kwd><kwd>прочность</kwd><kwd>пролетное строение</kwd><kwd>нагрузка</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>service reliability</kwd><kwd>criteria</kwd><kwd>beam</kwd><kwd>random variables</kwd><kwd>strength</kwd><kwd>span</kwd><kwd>load</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Картопольцев А.В. 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