vestniktgasuВестник Томского государственного архитектурно-строительного университетаVestnik Tomskogo gosudarstvennogo arkhitekturno-stroitel'nogo universiteta. JOURNAL of Construction and Architecture1607-18592310-0044Tomsk State University of Architecture and Building10.31675/1607-1859-2024-26-1-108-117vestniktgasu-1693Research ArticleСТРОИТЕЛЬНЫЕ КОНСТРУКЦИИ, ЗДАНИЯ И СООРУЖЕНИЯBUILDING AND CONSTRUCTIONСтохастический анализ структурной надежности сложных технических системStochastic analysis of structural reliability of complex engineering systemsКурасовО. А.KurasovO. A.

Курасов Олег Александрович, аспирант

634050, г. Томск, пр. Ленина, 30

Oleg A. Kurasov, Research Assistant

30, Lenin Ave., 634050, Tomsk

oak18@tpu.ruБурковП. В.BurkovP. V.

Бурков Петр Владимирович, докт. техн. наук, ст. научный сотрудник, Томский государственный архитектурно-строительный университет; профессор, Национальный исследовательский Томский политехнический университет

634003, г. Томск, пл. Соляная

234050, г. Томск, пр. Ленина, 30

Petr V. Burkov, DSc, Senior Scientist, Tomsk State University of Architecture and Building; National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University

2, Solyanaya Sq., 634003, Tomsk

30, Lenin Ave., 634050, Tomsk

burkovpv@mail.ruНациональный исследовательский Томский политехнический университетРоссияNational Research Tomsk Polytechnic UniversityRussian FederationТомский государственный архитектурно-строительный университет; Национальный исследовательский Томский политехнический университетРоссияNational Research Tomsk Polytechnic University; Tomsk State University of Architecture and BuildingRussian Federation202422022024261108117Copyright © Курасов О.А., Бурков П.В., 20242024Курасов О.А., Бурков П.В.Kurasov O.A., Burkov P.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://vestnik.tsuab.ru/jour/article/view/1693Актуальность

Актуальность. Серьезность и важность вопроса обеспечения надежности сложных технических систем в области нефтегазотранспорта не вызывает сомнений.

С целью оценки риска и прогнозирования надежности сложных технических систем, в частности наземных газопроводов, которые подвержены внешней коррозии, в статье предлагаются два вероятностных метода, основанных на анализе структурной надежности.

Методы исследования

Методы исследования. Описание рассматриваемых методологий реализуется двумя разными стратегиями проверки и технического обслуживания опасных производственных объектов.

Результаты

Результаты. Предлагается модель структурной надежности, которая обеспечивает оценку вероятности разрыва металла от наружной коррозии на исследуемом участке трубы. Представленная последовательность анализа структурной надежности моделирует механический отказ исследуемого участка трубопровода, учитывая стохастические процессы, связанные с нагрузками и сопротивлением на исследуемом сегменте трубы.

Неоднородный пуассоновский процесс применяется для моделирования образования новых дефектов, а распределение Пуассона используется для моделирования роста дефектов. Первая методика посвящена анализу внешней коррозии газопроводов с потерей металла и содержит оценки вероятности разрыва на эталонном участке трубы, который был построен на основе средних характеристик разрывов труб из базы данных PHMSA. Вторая вероятностная модель позволяет прогнозировать надежность для неочищаемых участков, подверженных внешней коррозии с потерей металла.

Purpose

Purpose: The assessment of risks and prediction of reliability of complex engineering systems, in particular onshore gas pipelines subjected to external corrosion. Two methods are proposed using the structural reliability analysis.

Methodology

Methodology: Two strategies are considered for inspection and maintenance service of hazardous production facilities.

Research findings

Research findings: The model of structural reliability is proposed to estimate the metal rupture from external corrosion of the pipe section. Models are presented for its mechanical failure with respect to stochastic processes of loads and resistance.

Value

Value: The inhomogeneous Poisson point process is used to simulate the formation of new defects, and the Poisson distribution is used to simulate their growth. The first method focuses on the analysis of external corrosion of gas pipelines with metal loss and predicts rupture at a reference pipe segment, constructed with respect to average pipe rupture characteristics from the PHMSA database. The second model predicts reliability for untreated sections subject to external corrosion with metal loss.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.